Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer

© Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics. All rights reserved.

SUMMARY

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, now in negotiation among nine Asia-Pacific countries, could yield annual global income gains of $295 billion (including $78 billion for the United States) and offers a pathway to free trade in the Asia-Pacific with potential gains of $1.9 trillion. The TPP’s expected template promises to be unusually productive because it offers opportunities for the leading sectors of emerging-market and advanced economies. An ambitious TPP template would generate greater benefits from integration than less demanding alternatives, but it will be harder to sell to China and other key regional partners as the TPP evolves toward wider agreements. The importance of Asia-Pacific integration argues for an early conclusion of the TPP negotiations, without jeopardizing the prospects for region-wide or even global agreements based on it in the future. Read more…

Masahiro Kawai
Dean and CEO, Asian Development Bank Institute

and

Ganeshan Wignaraja
Principal Economist, Office of Regional Economic Integration, Asian Development Bank

The inability to conclude the World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha Development Round has spawned a proliferation of bilateral and plurilateral free trade  agreements (FTAs) across the globe. While East Asia is a relative newcomer to FTAs, the region has seen a dramatic increase in the number of such agreements  in recent years. The explosion of FTAs in East Asia, led by the large economies of Northeast Asia—the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ROK)—is tied to the need to support sophisticated production networks through continued trade and investment liberalization, while also serving as a defensive response to the spread of FTAs elsewhere in the world.

A lively debate over the impact of FTAs on business in the region has resulted from their proliferation (see Baldwin 2006, Chia 2010). Data from East Asian  exporters on FTA utilization were lacking prior to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) firm-level multi-country survey conducted in 2007/08. The survey results  suggest that FTAs are indeed bolstering trade among firms, despite some concerns expressed over restrictive rules of origin (ROOs), particularly as economic recovery takes hold in the wake of declining trade volumes and nascent protectionism triggered by the recent global economic crisis. Governments can  facilitate the increased use of FTAs by actively disseminating information to firms on existing FTAs and adopting best practices in designing future FTAs, including ROOs.

East Asian economies are using FTAs to aggressively pursue their individual and collective trade strategies, leading to the expansion of advanced production networks across the region with hubs in Japan and the PRC. Rather than complicating efforts toward a Doha Round agreement, a region-wide FTA can contribute  to laying the foundation for such an agreement.

This brief is set out as follows. It begins by discussing East Asia’s emergence as a global factory and the spread of FTAs. It then examines varieties of national FTA strategies in Northeast and Southeast Asia. The brief goes on to analyze information on FTA use, impediments, and ROOs based on the ADB multi-country survey. Finally, it explores a possible way forward, highlighting short-term measures as well as a region-wide FTA for the medium term. Read more…