State of the Region

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State of the Region 2016-2017

PECC-SOTR-2016-2017

The Asia-Pacific is forecast to grow by 3.4 percent in 2016, much the same rate as in 2015 and this is expected to continue into 2017.

 

 

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icon State of the Region Report 2016-2017

 


Content:

i Message from the Co-Chairs of PECC

ii Executive Summary

Chapter 1: The Macroeconomic Outlook
CONTRIBUTED BY MR. EDUARDO PEDROSA, SECRETARY GENERAL OF PECC / COORDINATOR OF STATE OF THE REGION

    • Figure 1.1: Asia-Pacific GDP Growth
    • Figure 1.2: Asia-Pacific CPI Growth
  • CONCERNS OVER DEFLATION
  • HISTORICALLY HIGH DEBT LEVELS
    • Figure 1.3: Gross Government Debt
    • Figure 1.4: Change in Gross Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP, 2007-2015
  • PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH MISSING
    • Figure 1.5: Contribution of Total Factor Productivity to Regional Growth
  • INCOME GROWTH
    • Figure 1.6: GDP Per Capita Levels
    • Figure 1.7: GDP Per Capita Growth
  • BOX 1.1 CHINA’S ECONOMY WILL REMAIN STABLE AND SOUND
  • WHERE IS GROWTH COMING FROM?
    • Figure 1.8: Structure of the Asia-Pacific Economy (2014)
    • Figure 1.9: Drivers of Growth 2010-2014
  • SLOWING TRADE GROWTH
    • Figure 1.10: Asia-Pacific Export Growth
    • Figure 1.11: Asia-Pacific Import Growth
    • Figure 1.12: Trade Growth in the Asia-Pacific
  • UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS
    • Figure 1.13: Asia-Pacific Unemployment
  • Box 1.2: US ECONOMY: STILL SEARCHING FOR MOMENTUM
  • IMPACT OF BREXIT ON THE ASIA-PACIFIC
    • Figure 1.14: Asia-Pacific Exports to the European Union
    • Figure 1.15: Asia-Pacific Exports to the UK as a Percentage of GDP
  • ENGINES FOR GROWTH
    • Figure 1.16: Change in General Government Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP (2007 to 2015)
    • Figure 1.17: Change in Total Investment as a Percentage of GDP (2007 to 2015)
    • Figure 1.18: Growth in Investment in the Asia-Pacific (year-on-year)
    • Figure 1.19: Cash and Cash Equivalents on the Corporate Balance Sheet)
  • Box 1.3: CHALLENGES FOR JAPAN`S ECONOMIC POLICIES
    • Figure 1.20: Asia-Pacific Current Account Balances
    • Figure 1.21: Number of Protectionist Measures Adopted and Implemented by Asia-Pacific Economies
  • CURRENT ACCOUNT
  • SOUTHEAST ASIA
  • PACIFIC SOUTH AMERICA
  • THE RISING SCEPTER OF PROTECTIONISM
  • Box 1.4: PACIFIC ALLIANCE: MEETING EXPECTATIONS
  • INTEGRATION AND INEQUALITY

Chapter 2: Benefits of services trade liberalization in the Asia-pacific
CONTRIBUTED BY DR. SHERRY M. STEPHENSON, SENIOR FELLOW, INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR TRADE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (ICTSD) / PECC SERVICES NETWORK

  • SERVICES ARE OF CRITICAL IMPORTANCE TO THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION
    • Figure 2.1: Evolution of Share of Services in GDP in Selected Asia-Pacific Economies
    • Figure 2.2: Service Sector Employs Largest Number of Workers in APEC Economies
    • Figure 2.3: Industry Contribution to Growth in Business Sector Labor Productivity
    • Figure 2.4: Global Innovation Index: Factors contributing to innovation Business Sophistication Human Capital
    • Figure 2.5: Share of Value Added in APEC Manufacturing Exports (1995 & 2009)
    • Figure 2.6: Services Employment Promotes Female Participation and Inclusivity
    • Figure 2.7: Services Now Generate the Highest Value-Added (VA) in International Trade Flows (2011)
    • Figure 2.8: Positive Relationship between Telecom Reform and Access to the Internet
  • SERVICES ARE NOW RECEIVING MORE POLICY ATTENTION IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC
  • SERVICES ARE STILL HIGHLY RESTRICTED IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC
    • Figure 2.9: Views on Services as a Top Trade Issue for APEC
    • Table 2.1 Comparisons of the OECD and World Bank STRI Databases
    • Figure 2.10: Average Level of Restrictiveness of Services Regulations in Asia-Pacific by Sector and Type of Restrictive Policy Based on OECD STRI
    • Figure 2.11: Comparing the World Bank and OECD STRI Indices for Services Restrictions by Sector for APEC Economies
    • Figure 2.12: Equity Restrictions on Services Compared with Overall Restrictiveness of FDI for Selected APEC Economies (2014)
    • Figure 2.13: Negative Impact on Services Trade of Restrictions on FDI
  • SERVICES LIBERALIZATION AND REFORM WOULD PROVIDE TREMENDOUS BENEFITS TO ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIES
  • BOX 2.1 BENEFITS DERIVING FROM SERVICES LIBERALIZATION
  • UNTAPPED POTENTIAL FOR SERVICES CONTRIBUTION IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC
    • Figure 2.14: APEC Services Value Added in Exports below World Average
    • Table 2.2 Indicators Evaluating the Engagement in Services by APEC Economies
  • GAINS TO BE DERIVED FROM SERVICES LIBERALIZATION AND REFORM
  • BOX 2.2 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS TO IMPROVE COMPETITION BY SECTOR
    • Figure 2.15: Weighted Average Productivity Improvements from Structural Reforms in Transport, Energy and Telecommunications for APEC Economies (in percentages)
  • BOX 2.3 SUCCESS STORIES IN APEC AS A RESULT OF ENHANCING COMPETITION IN SERVICES
    • Figure 2.16: Welfare Gains from Structural Reforms in Services Relative to Initial Economic Size for APEC Economies (in percentages)
    • Figure 2.17: Contribution to Welfare from Own and Others’ Structural Reform in Services for APEC Economies (percentage of total)
  • FUTURE CHALLENGES

Chapter 3: Perspectives on regional policy issues
CONTRIBUTED BY MR. EDUARDO PEDROSA, SECRETARY GENERAL OF PECC / COORDINATOR OF STATE OF THE REGION

    • Figure 3.1: Views on Global Growth (2009-2016)
    • Figure 3.2: Views on Major Economies/Region
  • OUTLOOK FOR WORLD ECONOMY REMAINS NEGATIVE
  • SLOWDOWN IN WORLD TRADE GROWTH NOW A MAJOR RISK
    • Figure 3.3: Risks to Growth
  • RISING RISK OF PROTECTIONISM
    • Figure 3.4: Evolution of Protectionism as Risk to Growth 2011-2016
    • Figure 3.5: Protectionism as a Risk to Growth (views by sub-region)
  • ATTITUDES TOWARDS TRADE
    • Figure 3.6: Views on the Political Environment for Freer Trade in the Asia-Pacific (by Sub-Region)
    • Figure 3.7: Shifts in Views on the Political Environment for Freer Trade (2015-2016)
  • WHAT LIES BEHIND FALTERING SUPPORT FOR TRADE?
    • Figure 3.8: Reasons Behind Attitudes towards Freer Trade and Investment in the Asia-Pacific
    • Figure 3.9: Impact of Rising Income Inequality on Attitudes towards Trade
    • Figure 3.10: Impact of Job Security on Attitudes towards Trade
  • VIEWS ON THE BENEFITS OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION INITIATIVES
    • Figure 3.11: Advanced Economy Views on Trade Initiatives
    • Figure 3.12: Emerging Economy Views on Integration Initiatives
  • APEC SHOULD FOCUS TRADE WORK ON ACHIEVING THE FTAAP
    • Figure 3.13: Views on the Economic Impact of the FTAAP (by sub-region)
    • Figure 3.14: APEC should focus its work on trade policy to achieving the FTAAP
    • Figure 3.15: Drivers of Growth
  • DRIVERS OF GROWTH
    • Figure 3.16: Key Sectors for Future Growth
  • SERVICES SECTOR TO DRIVE GROWTH
  • PERCEPTIONS OF THE IMPACT OF SERVICESLIBERALIZATION
    • Figure 3.17: Perceptions of the Impact of Services Liberalization: Quality and Prices
    • Figure 3.18: Perceptions of the Impact of Services Liberalization: Jobs and Corporate Sector
  • BARRIERS TO SERVICES
    • Figure 3.19: Barriers to Services Trade
    • Figure 3.20: Seriousness of Barriers to Data Flows (by type and size of business)
  • TRANSPARENCY, MULTIPLE LAYERS OF AUTHORITY, AND PREDICTABILITY OF REGULATIONS
  • CERTIFICATION AND STANDARDS ISSUES
  • TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY REQUIREMENTS
  • RESTRICTIONS ON DATA FLOWS
  • COMPLEX REQUIREMENTS FOR VISAS AND PERMITS FOR FOREIGN EMPLOYEES
  • PERCEPTIONS OF APEC CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
    • Figure 3.21 Attitudes toward APEC (2007-2016)
    • Figure 3.22: APEC is as important or more important today compared to 1989 when it was created (by sub-region)
  • IS IT TIME FOR APEC TO EXPAND ITS MEMBERSHIP?
    • Figure 3.23: APEC should expand its membership
    • Figure 3.24: APEC is already too large, and a moratorium on new members should be imposed
    • Figure 3.25: Expansion of APEC Membership as a Priority for APEC Leaders
  • PRIORITIES FOR APEC LEADERS
    • Figure 3.26: Priorities for APEC Leaders’ Discussions in Lima
    • Figure 3.27: Priorities for Advanced Economies
    • Figure 3.28: Priorities for Emerging Economies
    • Figure 3.29: Priorities for Business
    • Figure 3.30: Priorities for Government

Chapter 4: Index of economic integration in the Asia-Pacific
CONTRIBUTED BY DR. BO CHEN

    • Figure 4.1: Composite Index of Regional Economic Integration
    • Table 4.1: Weights Used
    • Table 4.2: Comparison of 2010 and 2011 Indices
  • ASIA-PACIFIC TRADE FLOWS
  • FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
    • Figure 4.2: Intraregional Trade Flows (% of GDP)
    • Figure 4.3: Intraregional Flows of Foreign Direct Investment (%)
    • Figure 4.4: Intraregional Tourist Inflows (% of total)
    • Figure 4.5: Convergence Index
  • TOURISM FLOWS
  • CONVERGENCE INDEX
    • Figure 4.6: Deviation of GDP Per Capita
  • LESS DIVERGING INCOMES
    • Figure 4.7: GDP Per Capita Growth
    • Figure 4.8: Deviation Indicator: Urban Resident Ratio
    • Figure 4.9: Deviation Indicator: Share of Non-agriculture in GDP
    • Figure 4.10: Deviation Indicator: Expenditure on Education as a Proportion of GNI
    • Figure 4.11: Deviation Indicator: Life Expectancy

ANNEX A FOR CHAPTER 1

ANNEX B FOR CHAPTER 2: Results of Asia-Pacific policy community survey

Member Committees

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PECC&JP Conference

PECCJP

Global Challenges and Regional Solutions:
Engaging Stakeholders
25 April, 2016
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Discussion Forum

Can Asia transform international investment law?
Stephan W. Schill, Professor, University of Amsterdam


Inclusive Trade and Regional Integration in Asia-Pacific
John West, AUSPECC


APEC 2016: The Role and Influence of Latin America
Camilo Pérez-Restrepo, Professor in Asia-Pacific Studies; Deputy Coordinator of the Asia-Pacific Studies Center at Universidad EAFIT, Colombia


Promoting Inclusiveness of Mega FTAs for Advancing Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Integration
Chien Fu-Lin, President, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research; Chair, CTPECC


Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement as a Vehicle for Revitalizing the Japanese Economy and Rebuilding the World Trade Regime
Shujiro Urata, Faculty Fellow, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (REITI)


Trade Agreements are in ASEAN's best interest
Sanchita Basu Das, Yusof Ishak Institute of Southeast Asian Studies


 

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