State of the Region Report 2009

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State of the Region 2009 - 2010


SOTR-2009

The worst of the global economic downturn which began in late 2008 now appears to be behind us. Yet, the outlook for 2010 and for a sustained recovery in the Asia-Pacific region remains uncertain. While economic growth has returned to most major economies, the rebound has been weak, and there are serious concerns about the ability of governments to continue providing fiscal and monetary stimulus to their economies. The downside risks to growth are large and these risks will likely persist for the foreseeable future. 

The most important of these risks is the problem of so-called “global imbalances”, which in practice boils down to an imbalance between on the one hand the United States – which is saving too little and carrying too much debt – and on the other hand the Asian economies – which have relied too much on US consumer spending and on holdings of US debt. The resolution of the “global imbalance” problem in effect requires the rebalancing of growth in the Asia-Pacific region. 

Content:


 Message from the Co-Chairs of PECC

Executive Summary

Chapter 1 - Crisis to Growth: Strategies for Recovery in the Asia-Pacific

  • Chart 1-1: Real GDP Growth Projections (IMF, October 2009)
  • Crisis, recovery and risks
    • Chart 1-2: Fiscal and Monetary Measures
  • Sustained growth beyond the crisis
    • Chart 1-3: Rebalancing Demand
    • Chart 1-4: Rebalancing Trade
  • Structural policies
  • Growth engines
  • A role for Asia-Pacific institutions 
  • Layered Cooperation

 

Chapter 2 - Survey of Opinion-Leaders

  • Rising Optimism on the Economic Outlook
    • Chart 2-1: Expectations for growth of the global economy: in October 2008, May 2009 and October 2009
    • Chart 2-2: What are your expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months compared to the last 12?
  • Policy Responses to the Crisis
    • Chart 2-3: How satisfied are you with the responses of the following economies to the crisis?
    • Chart 2-4: How satisfied are you with the responses of the following international institutions to the crisis? (May 2009 compared to October 2009)
    • Chart 2-5: Economies have largely avoided resorting to protectionist measures in response to the crisis
  • Not yet time to exit
    • Chart 2-6: It’s time to exit from expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in the United States, China, and Japan
    • Chart 2-7: The US economy will recover from the economic crisis to retain its leading position in the world economy
  • International Policy Objectives for Sustained Growth
    • Table 2-1: Importance of the following policy objectives for achieving sustained growth in the Asia-Pacific over the next five years.
  • What will drive growth over the next 5 years?
    • Table 2-2: Growth Engines in the Asia-Pacific over the next 5 years
  • Free Trade Agreements
  • Regional and International Cooperation
    • Chart 2-9: The G20 Leaders’ process should continue and be institutionalized even after the economic crisis is over
  • Regional Architecture
    • Chart 2-10: The Asia-Pacific needs a forum for Leaders to discuss political and security issues
    • Chart 2-11: The East Asia Summit process will eventually overshadow APEC
  • APEC Leaders Should Focus on the Economic Crisis

 

Chapter 3 - A Composite Index of Economic Integration in the Asia-Pacific

  • Table 3-1: Comparison of 2005 and 2006 Composite Index
  • Chart 3-1: Intra-regional trade share, Asia-Pacific
  • Chart 3-2: Intra-regional FDI share, Asia-Pacific
  • Chart 3-3: Intra-regional tourist inflow, Asia-Pacific
  • Chart 3-4: Updated Convergence Index: 1991-2006
  • Chart 3-5: Updated Composite Index: 1991-2006
  • How to Read the PECC Index of Asia-Pacific Economic
  • Technical Note on the Composite Index of Asia-Pacific Economic Integration 
  • Annex - State of the Region Survey

    Member Committees

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    Pacific Currents

    Digital Technologies, Services and the Fourth Industrial Revolutions
    Submitted by Jane Drake-Brockman, Christopher Findlay, Yose Rizal Damuri and Sherry Stephenson 


    COVID-19 has Exposed Major Gaps in our Social Safety Nets: In a Post-COVID World Will these Gaps be Closed?
    Hugh Stephens
    Vice Chair, CANCPEC; Distinguished Fellow, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada; Executive Fellow, School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary


    COVID-19: Experiences from best practices in Asia show a path forward in the fight against the coronavirus
    Jeffrey Reeves
    Vice-President of Research for the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada


    Wuhan Dispatch: Part 2: Sharing Best Practices Around Testing and Treatment
    Jeffrey Reeves
    Vice-President of Research for the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada


    Wuhan Dispatch: Part 1: Establishing a Dialogue Between Canadian and Chinese Health-care Professionals
    Jeffrey Reeves
    Vice-President of Research for the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada


    Multilateral Cooperation is a Safeguard against Pandemics
    Rebecca Fatima Sta Maria
    Executive Director, APEC Secretariat


    International cooperation during COVID-19
    Sungbae An
    Senior Research Fellow, Department of International Macroeconomics and Finance, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)


    G20 comes to the fore again
    Jorge Heine
    Research Professor, Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University; Non-resident senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing


    Tackling COVID-19 Together: A Bottom-Up Approach to Trade Policy
    Simon J. Evenett
    Economics Professor at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland and Global Trade Alert


    Drastic measures to stop spread of COVID-19 are necessary
    Charles E. Morrison
    Adjunct Fellow and Former President of the East-West Center; Former Co-Chair, PECC


    International Trade at a Time of Covid-19
    Roy Santana
    Expert on tariffs and customs issues at the WTO; occasional lecturer


    ASEAN-China cooperation in time of COVID-19 pandemic
    Jusuf Wanandi
    Vice Chair, Board of Trustees, CSIS Foundation; Former Co-Chair of PECC


    Project Team 2009

    Editorial Committee:

    Yuen Pau Woo (State of the Region Coordinator/ President & CEO, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada)

    Ian Buchanan (Chair, AUSPECC/ Senior Executive Advisor, Booz Allen Hamilton)

    Charles E. Morrison (Co-Chair, PECC/ President, East-West Center)

    Yoshiji Nogami (Chair, JANCPEC/ President, Japan Institute of International Affairs)

    Jusuf Wanandi (Co-Chair, PECC/ Member of the Board of Trustees, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia)

    Soogil Young (Chair, KOPEC/ President, National Strategy Institute, Korea)

    Eduardo Pedrosa (Secretary-General, PECC International Secretariat)

    Additional Contributors:

    Peter Petri (Brandeis University/ East-West Center)

    Chen Bo (Simon Fraser University/ Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada)