State of the Region: Special report on Covid-19

On behalf of the members of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC), it is our pleasure to present this special State of the Region report on the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the Asia-Pacific. We would like to express our appreciation to our member committees without whose support and effort our work would not be possible.

 Download:

State of the Region Report: Impact of the Covid-19 Crisis

CONTENT

I MESSAGE FROM THE CO-CHAIRS OF PECC

II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

III CHAPTER 1: THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE COVID 19 CRISIS

OUTLOOK FOR THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION

• Figure 1.1: Daily and Total Number of Infections
• Figure 1.2: The Spread of the Virus Across Regions
• Figure 1.3: Impact of the Covid-19 Crisis on Asia-Pacific Economic Growth
• Figure 1.4: Impact of the Covid-19 Crisis on Unemployment in the Asia-Pacific

WILL THE RECOVERY BE A V, W, A U OR A SWOOCH? 

• Figure 1.5: Perceptions of Economic Growth over the next 5 years
• Figure 1.6: Average Asia-Pacific Weighted Growth Index

RISKS TO GROWTH

• Figure 1.7: Risks to Growth
• Figure 1.8: Comparison of Risks: 2019 and 2020 
• Figure 1.9: Protectionism as a Risk to Growth
• Figure 1.10: Forecast for World Trade Growth
• Figure 1.11: Global Growth During the Great Depression
• Figure 1.12: Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Merchandise Trade Growth
• Figure 1.13: Impact of the Covid-19 Crisis on Merchandise Trade Growth

IV CHAPTER 2: FROM SURVIVAL, STIMULUS AND EXIT STRATEGIES

FISCAL RESPONSES AND FINANCIAL MARKETS

• Figure 2.1: Change in Policy Rates since the Crisis
• Figure 2.2: Fiscal Stimulus by Asia-Pacific Economies
• Figure 2.3: Indicators of Financial Vulnerability
• Figure 2.4: Asia-Pacific Composite Index of Equity Markets (1/1/20=100)
• Figure 2.5: Asia-Pacific Composite Index of Exchange Rates (1/1/20=100)

THE MECHANICS OF LEAVING THE LOCKDOWN

• Figure 2.1: Change in Policy Rates since the Crisis
• Figure 2.2: Fiscal Stimulus by Asia-Pacific Economies
• Figure 2.3: Indicators of Financial Vulnerability
• Figure 2.4: Asia-Pacific Composite Index of Equity Markets (1/1/20=100)
• Figure 2.5: Asia-Pacific Composite Index of Exchange Rates (1/1/20=100)
• Figure 2.6: Factors for Consideration for Exiting from Lockdown
• Figure 2.7: First and Second Order Issues for Exiting from Lockdown
• Figure 2.8: Differences between Emerging and Advanced Economy Responses on Priority Issues for Exiting from Lockdown

LONG TERM IMPACT ON BUSINESS

• Figure 2.9: Please indicate your level of agreement/disagreement with the following statements about the lasting consequences of the COVID-19 crisis on the ways in which business is conducted Long Term Impact on Business

THE ACCELERATED GROWTH OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY

• Figure 2.10: Business App Downloads Figure The Accelerated Growth of the Digital Economy
• Figure 2.11: The Link Between Business App Downloads and Workplace Closures Opportunity for More Inclusive Education with Digital Technology

OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE INCLUSIVE EDUCATION WITH DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY

• Figure 2.12: Video-Conference Downloads
• Figure 2.13: The Link Between School Closure and Video-Conference Downloads Will Supply Chains be More Localized?

WILL SUPPLY CHAINS BE MORE LOCALIZED?

• Figure 2.14: Will Supply Chains be more localized? Better Living Conditions for Migrant Workers
• Figure 2.15: Improved living and working conditions for temporary migrant workers Connectivity: Jobs and Trade

BETTER LIVING CONDITIONS FOR MIGRANT WORKERS

CONNECTIVITY: JOBS AND TRADE

• Figure 2.16: Impact of Covid-19 on International Travel
• Figure 2.17: International Tourism Receipts as Percentage of GDP
• Figure 2.18: Asia-Pacific International Travel Restrictiveness
• Figure 2.19: Evolution of Adoption of Travel Restrictions in the Asia-Pacific Rebuilding Confidence in Travel: Bubbles and Fast Lanes State Support for Air Transport The Role of Government in the Post-Crisis Era 

THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN THE POST-CRISIS ERA

• Figure 2.20: Government management is likely to cover almost all aspects of the economy, including international trade and the domestic economy to cover almost all aspects of the economy, including international trade and the domestic economy
• Figure 2.21: Government management is likely to be targeted on safeguarding people’s lives and measures to ensure essential health supplies
• Figure 2.22: Change in Government Expenditure % GDP for Selected Regional Economies Figure 2.23: Government Expenditure % GDP for the Asia-Pacific

V CHAPTER 3: AGENDA FOR COOPERATION

• Figure 3.1: Priority Issues for Regional Cooperation

PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS PRACTICES

VACCINE DEVELOPMENT

TRADE POLICY ISSUES

• Figure 3.2: Trade Restrictive Measures Adopted by Asia-Pacific Economies
• Figure 3.3: Trade Liberalizing Measures Adopted by Asia-Pacific Economies

INFORMATION SHARING

• Figure 3.4: First and Second Order Priorities for Regional Cooperation

PROTOCOLS ON THE INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENT OF WORKERS INVOLVED IN SUPPLY CHAINS

• Box: APEC's Key Role 

CONTACT TRACING

• Figure 3.5: Government is encouraged to apply ICT and other innovative technologies to contact trace to control the spread of COVID-19
• Figure 3.6: Smart Phone Penetration: Selected Asia-Pacific Economies
• Figure 3.7: Evolution of Contact Tracing Policies in the Asia-Pacific

CAPACITY BUILDING FOR RECOVERY

• Figure 3.8: Rating of Capacity Building Activities for a Post-Covid Recovery

STRUCTURAL REFORMS

• Figure 3.9: Structural Reforms
• Figure 3.10: Digital Social Payments
• Interview with Cindy Hook, Chief Executive, Deloitte Asia Pacific

VI CHAPTER 4: IMPLICATIONS FOR A POST-2020 VISION FOR APEC

Recommendations

VII APPENDIX: RESULTS OF SURVEY OF ASIA-PACIFIC POLICY COMMUNITY